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29
78
forecasters
7
29 comments
78 forecasters
Economy & Business
2 more...
Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?
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2 comments
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Markets give >20% to a twice-elected president's renomination in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
4%
2027-2028
15%
12 comments
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5%
chance
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US court block election result because of fraud in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
9%
2027-2028
15%
13 comments
36 forecasters
Futarchy adopted by 2070?
14%
chance
2 comments
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Polymarket "Holding Rewards" falls below 4% before 2028?
50%
chance
4 comments
194 forecasters
Will court change winner of '26 election for House, Senate or statewide office?
6%
chance
4 comments
4 forecasters
Change in Average Inflation Rate 2028 PV Prediction
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will correctly predict the 2028 Popular Vote Winner
60%
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will be below 0% for the 2028 election
40%
5 comments
10 forecasters
Avraham Eisenberg Prison Sentence Length 2030
Current estimate
63.9 months