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Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?


While having a lot of great qualities, prediction markets do have some drawbacks. For one, betting markets can be manipulated by anyone with enough resources if they do not mind losing some of them (in expectation). As a case in point, there is some evidence that in 2012 Romney's chances were artificially boosted, and some (rank) speculation (see e.g. here) that Bloomberg's could be similarly benefitting.

The proposition in question will be taken as:

A major prediction market such as PredictIt, Betfair, or one of comparable liquidity has had 2020 Presidential election results materially changed using bets made with funds tied directly to Bloomberg or his campaign.

That's not terribly precise, by design. It does not address the source of knowledge or fix many of the details. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of "self-resolving" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:

  • If at any time after the date of 2020-12-01 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.

  • Otherwise, on or about the close and resolve date of 2022-01-01, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.

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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

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Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

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