computing predictive insights composing intelligent wisdom aggregating predictive contingencies formulating critical futures calculating definitive wisdom mapping the future delivering contingent predictions computing quantitative forecasts assembling intelligent contingencies exploring precise contingencies assembling precise wisdom modeling accurate wisdom computing probable insights assembling contingent insights

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

If no candidate obtains a majority of delegates in the Democratic primaries, will the candidate with the most pledged delegates win the nomination?

At the time of writing, FiveThirtyEight's model [archived] estimates that there is a 38% probability that no candidate in the Democratic Primary will win more than half of pledged delegates. This probability is higher even to what the model assigns Bernie Sanders, the frontrunner in the race (36%). Yet the question of which candidate will be chosen by the DNC in the event of a contested convention remains highly uncertain.

Resolution

If a candidate obtains a majority of pledged delegates, the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise, it will resolve positively if the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates is also the candidate who wins the nomination, and negatively otherwise.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.