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If no candidate obtains a majority of delegates in the Democratic primaries, will the candidate with the most pledged delegates win the nomination?
At the time of writing, FiveThirtyEight's model [archived] estimates that there is a 38% probability that no candidate in the Democratic Primary will win more than half of pledged delegates. This probability is higher even to what the model assigns Bernie Sanders, the frontrunner in the race (36%). Yet the question of which candidate will be chosen by the DNC in the event of a contested convention remains highly uncertain.
If a candidate obtains a majority of pledged delegates, the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise, it will resolve positively if the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates is also the candidate who wins the nomination, and negatively otherwise.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.