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If no candidate obtains a majority of delegates in the Democratic primaries, will the candidate with the most pledged delegates win the nomination?

At the time of writing, FiveThirtyEight's model [archived] estimates that there is a 38% probability that no candidate in the Democratic Primary will win more than half of pledged delegates. This probability is higher even to what the model assigns Bernie Sanders, the frontrunner in the race (36%). Yet the question of which candidate will be chosen by the DNC in the event of a contested convention remains highly uncertain.


If a candidate obtains a majority of pledged delegates, the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise, it will resolve positively if the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates is also the candidate who wins the nomination, and negatively otherwise.


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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

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