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39 comments
185 forecasters

What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?

3.5result: Yes
341.2%
2.517%
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
ADQ
Opened:May 5, 2025
Closes:Jun 19, 2025
Resolved:Jul 2, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 8, 2025
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
Geopolitics
🏆 2025 Leaderboard
Associated Press logo
Trump blasts Spain for being NATO’s spending ‘laggard.’ Madrid replies that it is a ‘loyal’ ally
Associated Press•Oct 10, 2025
Independent logo
Trump suggests throwing ‘laggard’ Spain out of NATO
Independent•Oct 10, 2025
Daily Mail logo
Trump suggests Spain should be THROWN OUT of NATO for their 'inexcusable' low defence spending
Daily Mail•Oct 10, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States
30%
Poland
30%
Lithuania
29%
9 others
33 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30% chance
36

What percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030?

2.78%
(2.23 - 3.7)
2.78%
(2.23 - 3.7)
22 forecasters
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