Question

What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?

6

185 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 170

3.5

3

2.5

4

2 or lower

5

Make a Prediction

%		My Prediction		Me
Resolved3.5	31.7%

2 or lower	3.9%

2.5	17%

3	41.2%

4	4.1%

5	2.1%

Total: ?

(? remaining)

Which of these actually happened?3.5

Community Peer Score

54.9

Authors:

Opened:

May 5, 2025

Closes:

Jun 19, 2025

Resolves:

Jun 27, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 19, 2025

2025 Leaderboard

NATO members agreed to raise their spending targets by 2035 to 5% of gross domestic product annually on core defense requirements as well as defense-and security-related spending. That target had been 2% of GDP.

•Jun 26, 2025

NATO members agreed to raise their spending targets by 2035 to 5% of gross domestic product annually on core defense requirements as well as defense-and security-related spending. That target had been 2% of GDP.

•Jun 26, 2025

NATO members agreed to raise their spending targets by 2035 to 5% of gross domestic product annually on core defense requirements as well as defense-and security-related spending. That target had been 2% of GDP.

•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase spending on defense?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

What percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030?

Authors:

Opened:

May 5, 2025

Closes:

Jun 19, 2025

Resolves:

Jun 27, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 19, 2025

2025 Leaderboard

NATO members agreed to raise their spending targets by 2035 to 5% of gross domestic product annually on core defense requirements as well as defense-and security-related spending. That target had been 2% of GDP.

•Jun 26, 2025

NATO members agreed to raise their spending targets by 2035 to 5% of gross domestic product annually on core defense requirements as well as defense-and security-related spending. That target had been 2% of GDP.

•Jun 26, 2025

NATO members agreed to raise their spending targets by 2035 to 5% of gross domestic product annually on core defense requirements as well as defense-and security-related spending. That target had been 2% of GDP.

•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase spending on defense?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

What percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030?