Question

What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?

29 comments29

185 forecasters

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Total Forecasters 12

3.5

2.5

2 or lower

Make a Prediction

%		My Prediction		Me
2 or lower	3.3%

2.5	18.3%

3	40.8%

3.5	32.6%

4	3%

5	2%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Total: ?

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Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

May 5, 2025

Closed:

Jun 19, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 27, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 19, 2025

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NATO members agreed to raise their spending targets by 2035 to 5% of gross domestic product annually on core defense requirements as well as defense-and security-related spending. That target had been 2% of GDP.

•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase spending on defense?

274B

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

What percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030?

2.59

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

May 5, 2025

Closed:

Jun 19, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 27, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase spending on defense?

274B

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

What percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030?

2.59