Question

Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?

21

Total Forecasters150

Community Prediction

75%

(60% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

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Authors:

Opened:

Mar 5, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2020

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 5, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2020

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?