Question

Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?

26 comments26

Total Forecasters149

Community Prediction

76%

(60% - 88%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 76%

Authors:

Haifisch

Opened:

Mar 5, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2020

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

AI box

The Perilous Race to Superintelligent A.I.: Progress or Pandora’s Box?

Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

Could AI Become Conscious?

Lew Rockwell•Mar 20, 2025

OpenAI research lead Noam Brown thinks AI ‘reasoning’ models could’ve arrived decades ago

TechCrunch•Mar 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

19.1

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2026

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haifisch

Opened:

Mar 5, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2020

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

AI box

The Perilous Race to Superintelligent A.I.: Progress or Pandora’s Box?

Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

Could AI Become Conscious?

Lew Rockwell•Mar 20, 2025

OpenAI research lead Noam Brown thinks AI ‘reasoning’ models could’ve arrived decades ago

TechCrunch•Mar 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

19.1

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2026