26 comments
153 forecasters
Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?
77%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 5, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 7, 2020
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
22.4 months
(5.02 - 159)
22.4 months
(5.02 - 159)
240 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
57 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
02 Oct 2027
(12 Apr 2026 - Jun 2031)
02 Oct 2027
(12 Apr 2026 - Jun 2031)
1.7k forecasters