26 comments
153 forecasters
Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?
76%chance
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Mar 5, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 7, 2020
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
21.2 months
(4.75 - 140)
21.2 months
(4.75 - 140)
239 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
34 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
29 May 2027
(02 Feb 2026 - Oct 2030)
29 May 2027
(02 Feb 2026 - Oct 2030)
1.7k forecasters