129 forecasters

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Current estimate

May 2034

Key Factors

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Feb 20, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 22, 2020