Question
When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?
Total Forecasters103
Community Prediction
May 2040
(Sep 2032 - Apr 2057)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Sep 2032 | — |
| median | May 2040 | — |
| upper 75% | Apr 2057 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2100 | 7.7% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 20, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2099
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 22, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Feb 20, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2099
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 22, 2020