Metaculus
Question
Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Solid metallic hydrogen: will it superconduct at room temperature?
Solid metallic hydrogen has apparently been recently created in the lab. If verified, this could be a big deal (see accompanying question on citations), as the substance has been theorized for decades and may have very interesting properties.
Among these, there has been speculation that it may superconduct, and that this superconductivity may be maintained even to room temperature, which would be a revolutionary discovery.
As of the preprint's preparation, there was apparently a sample sitting in a cryostat in the lab:
As of the writing of this article we are maintaining the first sample of the first element in the form of solid metallic hydrogen at liquid nitrogen temperature in a cryostat. This valuable sample may survive warming to room temperature and the DAC could be extracted from the cryostat for greatly enhanced observation and further study. Another possibility is to cool to liquid helium temperatures and slowly release the load to see if SMH is metastable. An important future measurement is to study this metal for high temperature superconductivity.
Will a solid metallic hydrogen sample superconduct at room temperature?
Resolution is positive if a preprint or published paper credibly reports experimental measurements of superconductivity in solid metallic hydrogen at 0 degrees centigrade or above (we'll allow a cold room) prior to start of 2018.
{{qctrl.predictionString()}}
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Thanks for predicting!
Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.
Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!
Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
Community Stats
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.