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Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
Metaculus has generated a large number of questions about COVID-19, a concerning number of which resolve on a single data source: the JHU CSSE COVID-19 dashboard (and its underlying data). If it were to permanently break, cease being updated, or dramatically change format, it could put many of our COVID-19 questions in jeopardy of being resolved ambiguous.
Will the COVID-19 dashboard be maintained through 2020-12-31?
The question resolves negatively if any of the following occur:
- The dashboard is shut down with no clearly designated successor.
- The dashboard is left unmaintained for a period of at least 14 consecutive days, starting at any time after 2020-02-26.
- The dashboard is clearly broken on 2020-12-31.
- The dashboard is paywalled on 2020-12-31.
- Three or more Metaculus questions which were written to resolve based on data from the dashboard are resolved as "Ambiguous" because it was not possible to use the dashboard or its data to adjudicate the resolution.
Otherwise, this question resolves positively.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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