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Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?

My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie Sleeper, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not "steak or cream pies or hot fudge", foods known by (future) science to be healthy.

In the 45+ years since then it's not gotten that much better. A case in point is the Ketogenic diet, characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates.

The idea that a diet containing items like a bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be:

"It is generally acknowledged in the scientific community that a ketogenic diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people when adopted for a period of several years, at a level comparable to (say) the Mediterranean diet as of 2020."

That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of "self-resolving" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:

  • If at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.

  • Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.

edited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from "typical person" to "some identified and significant population of people."


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