predicting critical forecasts delivering definitive understanding delivering precise wisdom composing critical contingencies formulating calibrated contingencies mapping the future delivering probable futures exploring calibrated understanding aggregating intelligent understanding composing precise futures formulating calibrated understanding predicting calibrated forecasts computing predictive forecasts formulating quantitative estimations

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?

A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.

The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature (IPCC 2008). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies.

Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) (IPPC, 2013).

Over the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (Meinshausen et al. 2011). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).

Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?


Resolution

This question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by Earth System Research Laboratory.

Data

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.