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Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

Coronaviruses are a family of RNA viruses that typically cause mild respiratory disease in humans. A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019.

Early estimation of the fatality rate put it around 2% (wikipedia), but this hides very high age-heterogeneity, the Chinese CDC estimating it at ~0.2% for people under 40, and ~15% for people 80+ years old.

It has been remarked that the candidates for the 2020 US Presidential election are rather old. On the Democratic side, most of the remaining major candidates as of this question's writing are over 70 (Tulsi Gabbard is 38, but very unlikely to win). On the other side, Donald Trump is 74.

Question: Will all major candidates for the US Presidential election survive the COVID-19 epidemic?


  • This resolves negative if any of {Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders} are reported by reputable media sources to have died as a result of COVID-19 in 2020, positive otherwise.

  • This resolves negative retroactively one week before the qualifying event, or positive on 2021-01-05.


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