FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction (free)
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
  • Unmake your prediction
    •

    Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?

    Created by Sylvain on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

    Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Question

    Coronaviruses are a family of RNA viruses that typically cause mild respiratory disease in humans. A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019.

    Early estimation of the fatality rate put it around 2% (wikipedia), but this hides very high age-heterogeneity, the Chinese CDC estimating it at ~0.2% for people under 40, and ~15% for people 80+ years old.

    It has been remarked that the candidates for the 2020 US Presidential election are rather old. On the Democratic side, most of the remaining major candidates as of this question's writing are over 70 (Tulsi Gabbard is 38, but very unlikely to win). On the other side, Donald Trump is 74.

    Question: Will all major candidates for the US Presidential election survive the COVID-19 epidemic?

    Resolution:

    • This resolves negative if any of {Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders} are reported by reputable media sources to have died as a result of COVID-19 in 2020, positive otherwise.

    • This resolves negative retroactively one week before the qualifying event, or positive on 2021-01-05.

    Categories:
    Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    This question is not yet open for predictions.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

    Metaculus help: Predicting

    Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

    The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

    The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

    Thanks for predicting!

    Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

    Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

    Track your predictions
    Continue exploring the site
    random question question list