Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, or the Dow) is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time. The Industrial portion of the name is largely historical, as many of the modern 30 components have little or nothing to do with traditional heavy industry. Along with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite, it is one of the most influential and scrutinized US equity indices.
In late 2019, a novel coronavirus emerged in Hubei Province, China, and quickly spread around the world. By February 28 2020, over 85,000 infections had been confirmed worldwide, along with over 2,900 related deaths.
The global spread of the virus spooked financial markets, and led to one of the most rapid selloffs in the history of public equity markets, with major US equity indices experiencing their worst week since the 2008 global financial crisis.
This question asks: Before the Dow Jones Industrial Average next closes at a record high level, what will be the lowest closing value it reaches?
Resolution should cite credible press reports, or information from a financial trading platform or news service.
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average is discontinued or modified such that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue with this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.
Note that this question refers to the closing value of the Dow, not any intraday level reached.
Also see this related question about when the next all-time record high will be reached.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.