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What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

The COVID-19 outbreak of 2019-2020 has been a matter of large public concern. In fact, this very website is running a competition to encourage good forecasting of questions related to this outbreak. However, it remains to be seen how well the community will predict on these questions.

On 12:00 am on the 20th of January 2021 (UTC), what will the average log score of the community prediction (at question closing time) be for COVID-19-related binary questions?

For context, the current average log score of the community prediction on all binary questions is 0.154.

This resolves based on the average score displayed on the 'Track Record' page for the community prediction using the log score, filtered to restrict to the 'Novel coronavirus' category. Should this page not exist, or be structured so differently as to make this description meaningless, resolution will be up to moderators' discretion.

This question shall not resolve before 12:00 am on the 21st of January 2021 (UTC).

Note: the Metaculus definition of log-scores has changed from to . This question resolves as the log-score according to the previous definition, score=.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

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Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.