Question
What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?
Resolved:0.10775Total Forecasters66
Community Prediction
<0.1
(<0.1 - 0.103)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.1 | 64.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | <0.1 | — |
| median | <0.1 | — |
| upper 75% | 0.1033 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >0.2 | 0.5% | — |
What was the final result?0.10775
Community Peer Score
48.6
Authors:
Opened:Mar 9, 2020
Closes:Oct 1, 2020
Resolves:Jan 23, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 10, 2020
What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?
What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?
48.9
Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?
43%
Authors:
Opened:Mar 9, 2020
Closes:Oct 1, 2020
Resolves:Jan 23, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 10, 2020
What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?
What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?
48.9
Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?
43%