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What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?


The COVID-19 outbreak of 2019-2020 has been a matter of large public concern. In fact, this very website is running a competition to encourage good forecasting of questions related to this outbreak. However, it remains to be seen how well the community will predict on these questions.

On 12:00 am on the 20th of January 2021 (UTC), what will the average log score of the community prediction (at question closing time) be for COVID-19-related binary questions?

For context, the current average log score of the community prediction on all binary questions is 0.154.

This resolves based on the average score displayed on the 'Track Record' page for the community prediction using the log score, filtered to restrict to the 'Novel coronavirus' category. Should this page not exist, or be structured so differently as to make this description meaningless, resolution will be up to moderators' discretion.

This question shall not resolve before 12:00 am on the 21st of January 2021 (UTC).

Note: the Metaculus definition of log-scores has changed from to . This question resolves as the log-score according to the previous definition, score=.

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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.