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39 comments
66 forecasters

What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?

community
<0.1
result
0.10775
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
DanielFilan
Opened:Mar 9, 2020
Closes:Oct 1, 2020
Resolved:Jan 23, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 10, 2020
Metaculus
Health & Pandemics
2020 Leaderboard

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low
94.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)
4.9%
High (or above, such as Very High)
1%
49 forecasters

What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?

48.6 points
(41.2 - 56.4)
48.6 points
(41.2 - 56.4)
25 forecasters

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

44% chance
34
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