What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?

Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!


The COVID-19 outbreak of 2019-2020 has been a matter of large public concern. In fact, this very website is running a competition to encourage good forecasting of questions related to this outbreak. However, it remains to be seen how well the community will predict on these questions.

On 12:00 am on the 20th of January 2021 (UTC), what will the average log score of the community prediction (at question closing time) be for COVID-19-related binary questions?

For context, the current average log score of the community prediction on all binary questions is 0.154.

This resolves based on the average score displayed on the 'Track Record' page for the community prediction using the log score, filtered to restrict to the 'Novel coronavirus' category. Should this page not exist, or be structured so differently as to make this description meaningless, resolution will be up to moderators' discretion.

This question shall not resolve before 12:00 am on the 21st of January 2021 (UTC).

Note: the Metaculus definition of log-scores has changed from to . This question resolves as the log-score according to the previous definition, score=.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site