delivering probable contingencies computing quantitative predictions modeling accurate understanding calculating predictive futures aggregating quantitative understanding mapping the future exploring contingent understanding calculating predictive predictions formulating intelligent predictions exploring quantitative estimations modeling probable futures predicting precise forecasts aggregating predictive estimations predicting calibrated estimations


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

If Biden has the majority of pledged delegates, but does not survive until the nominee is chosen, will Sanders become the nominee?

Joe Biden is 77 years old; from actuarial tables 77-year-old men have a roughly 4% probability of dying this year, and hence a roughly 1% chance of not surviving until the Democratic National Convention. Additionally, there is some chance that he contracts coronavirus, which has a high mortality rate for people in his age range.

As of writing this question, Biden has the most pledged delegates, and appears likely to win an overall majority, with Sanders in second place.

If the Democratic candidate does die, then the Democratic party will pick a replacement to nominate - this process would likely be very similar to a contested convention, with delegates and superdelegates not bound by the results of the previous primaries and caucuses. As the second-place candidate, Sanders would be a natural choice for the nomination, but need not necessarily be the nominee.

If Biden has the majority of pledged delegates, but does not survive until the nominee is chosen, will Sanders become the nominee?

The nominee is likely to be chosen at the 2020 Democratic National Convention, but positive resolution does not require the nominee to be chosen at the Convention (in case it's cancelled and another procedure is adopted).


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.