88 comments
138 forecasters
When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 16, 2020
Closes:May 5, 2020
Resolved:Jun 28, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 17, 2020
When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?
23 Oct 2028
(14 Feb 2026 - Oct 2033)
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48 forecasters
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
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When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?
20 Jul 2026
(11 Aug 2025 - Jul 2031)
20 Jul 2026
(11 Aug 2025 - Jul 2031)
5 forecasters