2 forecasters

By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?

78.5%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Oct 8, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 8, 2025

AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models

Trump Says U.S. Will Hit China With 100% Additional Tariff Over Rare Earth Restrictions

Breitbart•Oct 11, 2025

China Tightens Controls on Rare Earths Ahead of Trade Talks with Trump

Breitbart•Oct 10, 2025

China outlines more controls on exports of rare earths and technology

NBC•Oct 10, 2025

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