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What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?

Antarctica remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the Antarctic Treaty, which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter.

But will this always be the case? The southern continent has been heating up along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review in 2048.

What will the peak population of humans residing in Antarctica have been by 2075-01-01?

We will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a chain of live births from mothers) circa 1900 humans OR who could mate with circa 1900 humans to produce viable offspring. Entities such as AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.

Resolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source.

Inspired by this comment of user @j.m. on the similar question about Mars.


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