forecasting critical understanding formulating predictive predictions delivering critical wisdom delivering accurate understanding aggregating critical estimations mapping the future delivering predictive understanding modeling contingent understanding exploring probable futures delivering calibrated futures delivering quantitative understanding generating precise forecasts modeling definitive predictions forecasting calibrated futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Amazon award a $1M "Alexa Prize" for a chatbot in 2017?

Amazon has recently launched an "Alexa Prize" competition toward developing an effective "Socialbot" that can "[Engage] customers in a conversation about popular topics such as Entertainment, Fashion, Politics, Sports, and Technology."

Twelve sponsored university teams and some number of additional teams will compete from April until November 2017, using Amazon employees, users, and judges to narrow down to finalists in August, then have a final competition with a 3-judge panel in November.

The best team will win $500K, and there is an additional $1M prize if "their socialbot achieves the grand challenge of conversing coherently and engagingly with humans on popular topics for 20 minutes."

As specified in the FAQ, this is not a Turing test – the winning bot may be readily distinguishable from a human. It should, however, be "human like" in its ability to converse. Details of the judging procedure are in the official rules. In brief, each judge has a "red button" they can press when feel that as a user they would no longer enjoy talking to the bot, and

If and only if the Entrant Team that wins the 2017 Prize has a mean Finals Score equal to 4.0 or higher and maintains a conversation with at least two of the three Interactors for twenty (20) minutes without being stopped by the Judges, Sponsor will provide $1,000,000 U.S. dollars...

so, Will Amazon award the $1M prize?

Resolution will be by announcement by Amazon.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.