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Will the next US recession turn into a depression?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and unemployment has skyrocketed. It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is "Will the US Experience a Depression?" According to Investopedia:
A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.
According to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?
This question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:
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