7
114 forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
ResolvedNo
Domestic political constraints in France
Decreases Likelihood
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
Increases Likelihood
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
Decreases Likelihood
Trump no longer talking about leaving NATO
Decreases Likelihood
German stance
Increases Likelihood
French leadership commitment
Increases Likelihood