13
67 forecasters
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025?
ResolvedYes
Cameroon’s October 2025 election and succession uncertainty
Increases Likelihood
Aid Cuts
Increases Likelihood
Gen‑Z protests and government instability in Madagascar
Increases Likelihood
Madagascar
Increases Likelihood
Regional and international deterrents to coups
Decreases Likelihood
Jihadist Activity in the Sahel Region
Decreases Likelihood
Sahel juntas consolidating power after recent coups
Decreases Likelihood