25
123 forecasters
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?
ResolvedYes
Domestic Political Pressures and Nationalism
Increases Likelihood
Ceasefire and Diplomatic Engagement
Decreases Likelihood
Trump to oversee peace deal at ASEAN summit
Decreases Likelihood
Thailand-Cambodia border conflict: US calls for end to hostilities as clashes enter third daybbc.com•Dec 10, 2025
Increases Likelihood
Military Posture and Heavy Weaponry
Increases Likelihood
Trump taking pride in ceasefire, seeing violation as personal insult
Decreases Likelihood
Landmine Contamination and Accidental Incidents
Increases Likelihood