11 comments
75 forecasters
How many G20 members will not have recognized the State of Palestine before November 16, 2025?
Five83%
Four16%
Three or fewer1%
Top Key Factors
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 1, 2025
Closes:Nov 16, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Nov 16, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 4, 2025
When will a majority of G7 members recognize Palestinian statehood?
10 Nov 2026
(10 Feb 2026 - 15 Oct 2028)
10 Nov 2026
(10 Feb 2026 - 15 Oct 2028)
21 forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
51% chance
47
Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026?
2% chance
21