21
103 forecasters
What will be the upper bound of the federal funds rate announced at the December 2025 FOMC meeting?
3.75% or lower
4.00%
4.25%
4.50% or higher
Labor-market conditions
Increases Likelihood
Inflation trajectory
Increases Likelihood
September PPI data suggests rate cut likelihood
Decreases Likelihood
Financial stability and credit conditions
Increases Likelihood
FOMC minutes suggest divided rate decisions
Increases Likelihood for 4.00%
Jerome Powell's cautious stance
Decreases Likelihood for 3.75% or lower
Energy prices and geopolitical shocks
Increases Likelihood
68% chance of December cut on Polymarket
Decreases Likelihood