30 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Current estimate

Top Key Factors

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 3, 2025

Closes:

Dec 17, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 6, 2025

Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Iran Issues Nuclear Update After Satellite Images Revealed Activity

Newsweek•Nov 3, 2025

U.N. Watchdog Agency Detects Nuclear Activity in Iran

Breitbart•Nov 1, 2025

Western intelligence says Iran is rearming despite UN sanctions, with China’s help

CNN•Oct 29, 2025

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