composing predictive predictions mapping contingent wisdom composing calibrated wisdom formulating definitive futures calculating probable understanding mapping the future forecasting precise understanding forecasting accurate forecasts composing quantitative wisdom formulating accurate wisdom forecasting quantitative forecasts exploring precise understanding predicting quantitative insights modeling calibrated insights
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Has a new boson been discovered at the LHC?

On December 15th, 2015, two teams of physicists at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN announced the possible, tentative, detection of a new elementary particle. News story here.

The teams (comprised of the CMS and ATLAS consortia) have been accumulating data from the energetic collisions that occur when twin 6.5 TeV proton beams are directed at each other. Within the resulting subatomic collisional debris, both teams are observing an excess of 750 GeV gamma ray pairs that hint at the decay of a new type of boson that is four times heavier than the top quark.

The signal still has relatively low statistical significance, and was announced only because it was independently observed by both the CMS team and the ATLAS team. Further data are being acquired, and by Summer 2016, the signal, if it is real, will be of order 10x stronger than at present.

Will there be an announcement at or before the Aug 3-10 38th International Conference on High-Energy Physics, that the evidence for a di-photon excess has increased, rather than decreased, in statistical significance, to 5-sigma equivalent incompatibility with the standard model? (This significance can arise from a combined analysis of CMS and Atlas data.)

(Note: resolution criteria updated 3/8/16)

Categories: Research Impact, Scientific Discoveries, Physical Sciences – High Energy Physics

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.