100 comments
448 forecasters
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
55%chance
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Opened:Apr 23, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2300
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 25, 2020
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Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24% chance
287
Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?
33% chance
59
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
21% chance
422