45
59 forecasters
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?
Forecasts
Top Key Factors
AI leads to output-employment decoupling in 2035
Less % for 2035
Gradual estimates hide sudden AI job losses
Increases Uncertainty for 2027
10 years is far enough away that increasing uncertainty is important
Increases Uncertainty for 2035
US employment change 2025-2026
Projection
0.32 percent By
2026
Drop in birth rates reduces employment growth
Less %
Universal Basic Income Implemented Before 2035
Less % for 2035
AI will likely reduce white collar jobs very soon
Less %
Flattening job growth suggests upcoming layoffs
Less %
Aging population reduces workforce growth
Less %
US labor force growth projection 2026-2036
1in250
US nonfarm payroll employment change
1in500