49
432 forecasters
Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?
ResolvedNo
Oil is overrated as the reason for the attack
Increases Likelihood
Exclusive: US may lift more Venezuela sanctions next week, Bessent says | Reutersreuters.com•Jan 10, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
The US will negotiate/force assent by the Venezuelan government for military actions inside Venezuela.
Decreases Likelihood
US troops to safeguard unwanted election
Increases Likelihood
Focus on economic leverage over regime change
Decreases Likelihood
US aims to clean up Venezuelan cartels
Increases Likelihood
Few barriers while under US control
Increases Likelihood
Trump discusses expansion of drug cartel crackdown, issues grim warning to Iranfoxnews.com•Jan 7, 2026
Increases Likelihood
US military presence in region allows quick attack
Increases Likelihood
Congress needs to authorize military action
Decreases Likelihood