Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will the first exaflop performer appear?

Supercomputers just keep getting more capable. The website maintains a list of the top 500 supercomputers, on which individual U.S. and Chinese systems have been vying for the top spots.

Viewed globally, the entire Earth is starting to turn into a supercomputer. Artificial computation now consumes ~2.5 terrawatts of power, and Earth is approaching a computational rate of 0.0001 artificial bit operations per gram per second (and that goes for all 6x10^27 of the planet's grams).

According to Top500, as of November 2016, the world's most powerful supercomputer is the Sunway TaihuLight at the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi, China. It incorporates 10,649,600 individual 1.45 GHz cores to run at a peak speed of 125,435.9 Teraflops (125 quadrillion floating point operations per second), while consuming 15,371 kW of power.

Computational progress is gradually turning once-obscure prefixes -- giga, tera, peta -- into household words. The next frontier is "exa", as in exaflop performance consisting of one quintillion (10^18) floating point operations per second. At peak operation, the TaihuLight machine runs at 1/8th of an exaflop.

At what date will the first machine achieving exaflop Rpeak performance be listed on (List updates tend to occur twice per year, in June and in November.)


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.