103
402 forecasters
Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?
ResolvedYes
US-Iran nuclear talks end without a deal as threat of war growstheguardian.com•Feb 26, 2026
Increases Likelihood
How does US military build-up off Iran compare to the June 2025 strikes?aljazeera.com•Jan 31, 2026
Increases Likelihood
US military buildup suggests likelihood of attack
Increases Likelihood
The IRGC and the regime overall have not been so weak for a long time
Increases Likelihood
Shortening timelines point to military solution
Increases Likelihood
Regional powers oppose US airspace use for strikes
Decreases Likelihood
Netanyahu needs major wins for the election at the end of the year
Increases Likelihood
Oil prices indicate rising geopolitical tension
Increases Likelihood
Turkey plans buffer zone if Iran government fallsmiddleeasteye.net•Jan 28, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Iran ready for peace process within international law, president tells Saudi crown princeprokerala.com•Jan 28, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Sanctions to Combat Illicit Traders of Iranian Oil and the Shadow Fleet - United States Department of Statestate.gov•Feb 6, 2026
Decreases Likelihood