14
29 forecasters
What will the percent change of the real hourly median wage of US employees be relative to 2025 in the following years?
Forecasts
Top Key Factors
Job loss increases competition between workers, creating a buyers market for labor
Less %
Statistical composition effects could raise median
More %
Labor-market competition lowers median wage
Less %
AI-skilled worker gains may not raise overall median
Less %
Early AI job replacement disproportionately impacts high-paying roles
Less % for 2030
AI impact smaller on general wages than software
Less %
Weights from 6 biannal surveys reduces short term impact (only 50% from said year)
More % for 2030
Depending on economic and political choices, hourly wages could plummet or explode
Increases Uncertainty for 2035