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LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.

Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for either of the two periods:

  • from (and including) Sunday April 26th to (and including) Saturday May 2nd?


  • from (and including) Sunday May 3rd to (and including) Saturday May 9th?

Weekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for either week is the first such week to be below 5,000 as reported by the COVID tracker spreadsheet. This question will resolve using the data on the "US Daily 4pm ET" tab on 2020-05-10 at 16:00 EST.


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