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Counterfactual LRT 2.5: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
Over the last week, stay-at-home restrictions in Georgia have been lifted and some businesses have reopened. Since April 11, Georgia has reported a rolling 7-day average of just under 700 new confirmed cases per day (see figure).
Assuming that the restrictions had NOT been loosened and the stay-at-home order had remained in place and businesses remained closed, how many new cases would you have expected Georgia to see on average over the time period of May 10-16?
Specifically, what would the following be, if stay-at-home restrictions in Georgia had not been lifted:
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