30 forecasters

What will the percent change be in the US community college/trade school degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25?

Forecasts

Top Key Factors

Narrative that trade schools are safe and good choice

More %

Low social status and bad reputation

Less %

AI replacing skilled labor jobs reduces the appeal of 4-year degrees

More %

2-year degree enrollments up by ~11% from 2022-23 to 2024-25

More % for 2026-27

Physical, unpleasent nature of the work

Less %

High and rising cost of college degrees

More %

Reclassification may lower the qualifying number of 2-year institutions

Less % for 2026-27

Many '24/'25 enrollees are in certificate programs, graduating before the resolution window

Less % for 2026-27