Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?
Harvard University is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest endowment, with $40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019. The endowment's mission is "to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.".
The Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?
On an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?
If the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.
The question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:
- Harvard ceases to exist.
- Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down.
- Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students).
- The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.