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How much participation in the "general AI challenge"?
partnered with Center for the Study of Existential Risk, Leverhulme Center for the Future of Intelligence, Machine Intelligence Research Institute, and The Future of Life Institute
According to the description,
You will be programming and training an AI agent that will engage in a dialogue with the CommAI-Env environment. They will exchange bytes of information, and in addition the environment will give feedback signals to the agent to guide its behavior.
Your agent should demonstrate gradual learning—the ability to use previously learned skills to more readily learn new skills (and in this case, to answer questions generated by the environment). You will not be optimizing your agent’s performance on existing skills (how good an agent is at delivering solutions for problems it knows). Instead, you will be optimizing the agent’s efficiency at learning to solve new/unseen problems. . . .
After you submit your solution, your agent will be evaluated on similar, but not identical evaluation tasks. This way we avoid the case that the agent has been built for the given tasks only. Instead, it should possess more general ability to learn how to learn.
The competition has two parts, with a total purse of $50,000. Prize-winning codes have the choice of open-sourcing their solutions, or providing them to GoodAI on a non-exclusive basis.
Submissions are due August 14, 2017, with prizes announced September 30, 2017. Since it appears prizes will definitely be won, we'll ask here about the participation in this new contest.
How many qualified submissions will the first rounds of the General AI Challenge receive?
Resolution is by announcement by the Challenge, and resolves ambiguous if the number of qualifying submissions is not released.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.