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When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?

The Open Philanthropy Project has written about its reasoning on how to decide how to spread out grants over time. In 2015, Open Philanthropy Project stated that it wanted its last donated dollar to do more good than a direct cash transfer, and was targeting a 5% rate of annual dispersal, possibly to be increased in the future. Since then, Open Phil has updated its position, and no longer uses a single benchmark.

Open Phil may wish to donate all its funds relatively quickly, or spread out its giving over the course of centuries. How long will it take Open Phil to spend half its current assets?

Cari Tuna and Dustin Moskowitz, the founders of Good Ventures, currently have a net worth of $14 billion according to Forbes. Cari and Dustin have voiced an intention to donate most of their wealth.

As of 2020, Open Phil has donated a little over $1 billion, almost all of which came from Good Ventures. When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money, inflation-adjusted to 2020 dollars?

Money donated by Open Phil that came from other donors does not count toward the $7 billion, but funding recommended by Open Phil where the donation is enacted by Good Ventures does count.

By the Open Philanthropy Project, we refer to the grant-making organisation that makes Effective Altruism-aligned grants. If the organisation substantially changes its focus so that this is no longer broadly congruent with the latest Effective Altruist priorities, as judged by a Metaculus admin, the question resolves ambiguously.


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