Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Billions of param of largest ML model by 2030

Question

I have already asked whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters trained before 2026. We still have a way to go before reaching that milestone, but a day before writing this question, OpenAI published a paper describing GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter transformer. This model is over an order of magnitude larger than the previous largest models, which had roughly 17 billion parameters.

Physical constraints will eventually slow progress, but things can still get interesting before then.

I ask, before 2030, how many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained have? Resolution is determined by some sort of reliable document, blog post, or paper, published anywhere on the internet.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.