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Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?

Instagram, a social media platform for the positing of photographs and short videos, has become almost synonymous with the “selfie”. The most followed instagram account of all time is currently @instagram, the channel’s own account, whose purpose is to highlight popular users of and posts on the platform.

This question asks: Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?

Positive resolution occurs if the first post made by @instagram after 12 June 2020 18:00 BST is a photograph or video of an instagram user, whose own instagram account is tagged in the post.

If the post is a photograph which has more than one subject, as long as one of the subjects is tagged in the post, the question resolves positive. For the purpose of resolution, non-human animals such as @itsdougthepug, or inanimate objects which have been anthropomorphised, such as @davidseamandoing, do count as users of the platform. If the post in question contains multiple photographs and/or videos, only the first photograph is considered for the purposes of resolution.

Further details:

  • If the post is a video, and an instagram user (defined identically to above) who is tagged in the post appears in the video, positive resolution occurs. If the post in question contains multiple videos, only the first video counts for resolution.

  • If an account refers to more than one individual by name in it's name/bio (as is the case for both the accounts tagged), each of those individuals is treated as a "user" for the purposes of resolution, so a photo of them with the account tagged would trigger positive resolution.

  • If an account represents an organisation, company or brand e.g. with no specific individuals name in the bio or name, then a photograph of an employee or member would not trigger positive resolution. e.g. If @benandjerrys is tagged, the photo must be of Ben and/or Jerry. If @nike, is tagged, a photo of a sponsored athlete would not trigger resolution (unless the athlete's personal account was also tagged).

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.


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