21
135 forecasters
Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?
Likud
Yashar
Other
Yashar favored by prediction markets
Increases Likelihood for Yashar
Threshold effects increase seat uncertainty
Increases Uncertainty
Pollster disagreement increases outcome uncertainty
Increases Uncertainty for Likud
Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in four polls, but neither bloc secures Knesset majority - polljpost.com•Oct 18, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Likud has large polling variance
Decreases Likelihood for Likud
Recent polls show Yashar marginally ahead
Increases Likelihood for Yashar
Eisenkot's surge has stopped
Decreases Likelihood
Netanyahu emphasizes security
Increases Likelihood
Alleged ignored warnings controversy
Decreases Likelihood
No party has won 61 seats in Israel
Decreases Likelihood