assembling intelligent understanding calculating definitive understanding computing accurate contingencies predicting definitive futures formulating accurate contingencies mapping the future delivering intelligent predictions calculating intelligent contingencies assembling definitive estimations predicting accurate predictions crowdsourcing definitive futures predicting critical insights calculating precise insights predicting intelligent forecasts


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?

Although hedge funds run by women are relatively rare, they occasionally make headlines for outperforming those run by men, for example during the stock market crash associated with the coronavirus crisis, and more generally, in the 5 year period leading up to 2017.

Over the past 60 months, HFRI’s Women Index (HFRI-WI), a global, equal-weighted index of single-manager funds owned and/or managed by women, has returned an annualized performance of 1.26%, while over the same period HFRI’s Fund Weighted Composite Index (HFRI-FWCI) has returned 1.78%. However, the YTD performance of the HFRI-FWCI is so far -4.84%, compared to HFRI-WI’s -3.73%.

This question asks: What will be the difference in July 2020 between the performance of the HFR Women Index and the performance of the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?

Question resolves according to… Let % be the ROR listed for the “Monthly performance for July 2020” of the HFRI Women Index, and % be the ROR listed for the “Monthly performance for July 2020” of the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index. This question will resolve as

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.