FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?

    Created by Anthony on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Anthony on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}

    Question

    Donald J. Trump is the President of the US as of May 2017. However his term thus far has been beset by a certain level of chaos on many fronts. As a followup to a standing but closed question on whether Trump will still be President in two years, here we extend the timeline to 2019 and the beginning of the next Presidential election.

    In addition to the usual mortal risks that might prevent a president from serving the second year of his term, the likelihood of either resignation or impeachment seem distinctly higher in Trump's case than for some previous Presidents-Elect. Between a major FBI investigation, potential leaks of highly classified information, and other issues, there are major uncertainties as to his long-term viability.

    This question will resolve true if Donald J. Trump is the President of the United States on Feb 1, 2019.

    Categories:
    Elections – U.S. – President
    Politics – US

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.