aggregating quantitative estimations mapping predictive forecasts aggregating probable understanding predicting critical futures composing predictive futures mapping the future forecasting probable predictions formulating quantitative insights calculating definitive forecasts predicting quantitative futures generating contingent predictions formulating intelligent understanding predicting quantitative understanding composing quantitative predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

OK, fine, can FIVE human Go masters defeat AlphaGo?

The last several years have seen stunning advances by artificial Go contestants. Google's AlphaGo program has seen particular success. After sealing a stunning 4-1 victory over Go grandmaster Lee Sedol, an updated version of Alphago, playing in online forums using the account name 'Master', has swept through the Go field, defeating nearly all of the world’s top players in the course of 60 online matches without registering a single loss.

At the Future of Go summit, underway as of this question's writing, AlphaGo is facing off against go master Ke Jie (1-0 AlphaGo as of writing); a sister question asks whether any human can defeat AlphaGo in 2017.

One thing humans have in abundance is numbers, however, and another intriguing event at the Future of Go Summit is a planned 5-on-1 Human vs. AlphaGo team game in which "5 players combine tactics and take on AlphaGo together." (The players are Chen Yaoye, Zhou Ruiyang, Mi Yuting, Shi Yue, and Tang Weixing.)

Will the team of five humans defeat AlphaGo in this match?

The match takes place Friday 26 May (13:30 - 18:30, UTC+8).


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.